The State Space: Mid-March Update
Welcome to our State Space series. Here you will find how we’re thinking about the pathways and scenarios that could take us to critical economic states. We will never settle for "it's too unlikely." We try to...
Wages
46 postsDisinflationary Dynamics: Beyond Unemployment
At the Senate Banking Committee’s Humphrey Hawkins hearing on Tuesday, Senator Warren questioned Chair Powell about the implications of the Fed’s projections for unemployment, which call...
Labor Market Recap February 2023: A Strong Labor Market Keeps Participation High
The data from the February labor market show continued labor market strength. Almost all employment-based indicators show improvement from the previous month, even as the general trend of...
The State Space: March 2023
Welcome to our State Space series. Here you will find how we’re thinking about the pathways and scenarios that could take us to critical economic states.
Q4 ECI - Quick Recap: Avoiding Hawkish Overreaction & Shading Down The Phillips Curve
Wage growth slowed in Q4 faster than consensus forecasts–-at an annualized rate just over 4%. We already noted in our preview that this would be very consistent...
