The State Space: March 2023
Welcome to our State Space series. Here you will find how we’re thinking about the pathways and scenarios that could take us to critical economic states.
Wages
48 postsQ4 ECI - Quick Recap: Avoiding Hawkish Overreaction & Shading Down The Phillips Curve
Wage growth slowed in Q4 faster than consensus forecasts–-at an annualized rate just over 4%. We already noted in our preview that this would be very consistent...
Q4 ECI Preview: Coincident Data Suggests Slowing, But Noise & Lags Risk Hawkish Overreaction
As we await the Q4 Employment Cost Index (ECI) release tomorrow (forecasting consensus: 1.2% QoQ, 4.9% CAGR; Q3: 1.2% QoQ, 4.8% CAGR), two key...
