Paid-members February 23, 2024 by Skanda Amarnath — 3 min read Base-Case Revision: Waiting Until June For Cuts - Revising The Fed's Capacity To Be Headfaked By Seasonality Federal Reserve Fed Expectations Fed Policy Monetary Policy Macro and Markets State Space
Paid-members Financial Conditions Monitor & State Space: The Two Scenarios For Cuts and Their Broader FCI Implications - December 30, 2023 Skanda Amarnath — 3 min read Financial Conditions Systematic Monitors Fed Expectations Growth Expectations Inflation Expectations Fed Pricing Macro and Markets State Space
Paid-members November Core-Cast Post-IPI + Post-FOMC Thoughts: Nowcasts Still Look Soft But Not As Soft As What Powell Cited. Skanda Amarnath — 6 min read Core-Cast Core Inflation Core PCE State Space Core Services Ex Housing Inflation Data Recap FOMC Federal Reserve
Paid-members August Core-Cast Note: The Annual PCE Revisions Present Multiple Scenarios For Inflation and the Fed Funds Rate in Q4 Skanda Amarnath — 6 min read Core-Cast Core Inflation Core PCE Core Services Ex Housing Inflation State Space Data Preview Systematic Monitors Nowcast
Paid-members September Post-FOMC: Look Beyond The Dots - Projections Imply Stronger Preference For Recession Avoidance Skanda Amarnath — 8 min read Monetary Policy Fed Policy State Space Federal Reserve Macro and Markets Inflation FOMC Recap
