Lately, everyone has been looking closely for reliable recession indicators. We have been as well, but when we look at the overall labor market and investment picture, more and more things seem to be saying “No Recession.”
In a usual business cycle, investment in industrial equipment leads investment in manufacturing structures as businesses scale capacity up to meet demand. Today we’re seeing manufacturing investment explode upwards even as investment in equipment slows. This may be an early indication that CHIPS...
New industrial production data are suggesting that domestic auto production may be recovering. This would be a much-needed disinflationary force against a backdrop where disinflation in new and...
Three Big Themes We are starting to see some evidence of the long hoped-for supply response to pandemic price increases in this month’s monitor. One long-running shortage...
We are starting to see some evidence of the long hoped-for supply response to pandemic price increases in this month’s monitor. One long-running shortage ended, leaving only three 2+ year long shortages remaining from the pandemic disruption.
