Monetary Policy

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January 11, 2024 by Skanda Amarnath — 6 min read

December Core-Cast Post-CPI: A Marginal Setback For The Prospect Of A March Cut

Ten Thoughts On The Tribal “Transitory” Debate As We Enter 2024

Skanda Amarnath — 14 min read

There will be a time and a place for a more thorough retrospective of this still-unfolding (dis)inflationary episode, but it would be premature to make strong declarations...

Inflation Federal Reserve Fed Policy Inflation Expectations Labor Markets Monetary Policy

November Core-Cast Post-PCE: What Made The Fed Dovish A Week Ago Becomes More Visible To The Public

Skanda Amarnath — 4 min read

Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of...

PCE Recap Inflation Core-Cast Core Inflation Core PCE Core Services Ex Housing Systematic Monitors Fed Policy Federal Reserve

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November Core-Cast Post-GDP: Financial Services Revisions Weigh Favorably For A March Cut (For Now)

Skanda Amarnath — 4 min read

Core-Cast Core Inflation Core PCE Core Services Ex Housing Inflation GDP Nowcast Systematic Monitors Recap Data

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November Core-Cast Post-IPI + Post-FOMC Thoughts: Nowcasts Still Look Soft But Not As Soft As What Powell Cited.

Skanda Amarnath — 6 min read

Core-Cast Core Inflation Core PCE State Space Core Services Ex Housing Inflation Data Recap FOMC Federal Reserve

December Core-Cast Post-CPI: A Marginal Setback For The Prospect Of A March Cut

Ten Thoughts On The Tribal “Transitory” Debate As We Enter 2024

November Core-Cast Post-PCE: What Made The Fed Dovish A Week Ago Becomes More Visible To The Public

November Core-Cast Post-GDP: Financial Services Revisions Weigh Favorably For A March Cut (For Now)

November Core-Cast Post-IPI + Post-FOMC Thoughts: Nowcasts Still Look Soft But Not As Soft As What Powell Cited.

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