What to Expect: 1. The Fed will step down from their breakneck pace of 75 basis point hikes to a still very brisk 50 basis point pace of hikes. 2. FOMC members are likely to signal that the peak Fed Funds Rate...
Market rents are decelerating, which means CPI-measured rents – and with them, core and headline CPI – should ultimately decelerate as well, with a lag. But is this deceleration due...
Summary 1. Friday's Q3 ECI release showed a modest slowdown in the pace of wage growth. Coupled with what we already knew about Q3 employment growth,...
This is the second piece of our vacancies series. In this piece, we refute specific vacancy-backed arguments that the Federal Reserve will need to engineer a recession in order to bring inflation under control.
The Federal Reserve has given job vacancy data center stage in assessing the strength of the labor market. The theoretical and empirical issues with vacancies data show that this is a mistake.
