Monetary Policy

October 31, 2022 by Skanda Amarnath — 10 min read

Framework Update: Strong Enough Income Growth To Justify Hikes, But Slowing Enough For The Fed To Plan Off-Ramps

Summary 1. Friday's Q3 ECI release showed a modest slowdown in the pace of wage growth. Coupled with what we already knew about Q3 employment growth, we are continuing to see a slower—though still highly respectable and resilient—pace...

The Argument for a Recession is Built on Weak Links: Inflation, Vacancies and Unemployment

Preston Mui — 13 min read

This is the second piece of our vacancies series. In this piece, we refute specific vacancy-backed arguments that the Federal Reserve will need to engineer a recession in order to bring inflation under control.

Labor Markets Data Methods Monetary Policy

A Vacant Metric: Why Job Openings Are So Unreliable

Preston Mui — 14 min read

The Federal Reserve has given job vacancy data center stage in assessing the strength of the labor market. The theoretical and empirical issues with vacancies data show that this is a mistake.

Labor Markets Data Methods Monetary Policy

Framework Update: Strong Enough Income Growth To Justify Hikes, But Slowing Enough For The Fed To Plan Off-Ramps

The Argument for a Recession is Built on Weak Links: Inflation, Vacancies and Unemployment

A Vacant Metric: Why Job Openings Are So Unreliable

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