Monetary Policy

April 19, 2023 by Skanda Amarnath — 1 min read

Mid-April State Space: All Still To Play For

Welcome to our State Space series. Here you will find how we’re thinking about the pathways and scenarios that could take us to critical economic states. We will never settle for "it's too unlikely." We try to...

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Mid-April State Space: All Still To Play For

Skanda Amarnath — 4 min read

State Space Macro and Markets Monetary Policy Labor Markets Growth Expectations Inflation Expectations Core Inflation Inflation Wages Fed Policy

Causal Theme: By the Fed's "Core Services Ex Housing" Logic, The Fed's Inflation Narrative Is Due For Revision

Skanda Amarnath — 2 min read

Summary: If we focus on the domestic labor that contributes to "Core Services Ex Housing PCE" output, we see that wage growth is no longer looking...

Core Inflation Core Services Ex Housing Inflation Wages Monetary Policy Fed Policy Federal Reserve Labor Markets

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Fedspeak Monitor: April 15th

Alex Williams & Skanda Amarnath — 2 min read

Federal Reserve Fed Expectations Fed Policy FOMC Inflation Expectations Monetary Policy Systematic Monitors

March Core-Cast Post-CPI & PPI: Revisions Drive Year-over-Year Upside While Showing A Slower February & March

Skanda Amarnath — 6 min read

Core PCE Core Inflation Inflation Core-Cast Core Services Ex Housing Nowcast Data Recap Monetary Policy

Mid-April State Space: All Still To Play For

Mid-April State Space: All Still To Play For

Causal Theme: By the Fed's "Core Services Ex Housing" Logic, The Fed's Inflation Narrative Is Due For Revision

Fedspeak Monitor: April 15th

March Core-Cast Post-CPI & PPI: Revisions Drive Year-over-Year Upside While Showing A Slower February & March

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