The Federal Reserve began the process of normalizing interest rates at the September 18th, 2024 FOMC meeting. While the timing of the first rate cut was telegraphed well in advance, the magnitude—25 or 50 basis points—was not. A week prior...
We see two individually sufficient conditions for the Fed to proceed with a frontloaded interest rate cut in September above 25 basis points: either (1) the unemployment rate...
Thanks to outperforming supply-side dynamics, the labor market has already rebalanced. At the same time, income growth is still decelerating and the lagging bits of the inflation overshoot...
Almost as notable as the things Powell said were the things he did not. Between now and September, Fedspeak should focus on keeping the Committee’s options open to a 50 bps cut in September.
