The State Space: March 2023
Welcome to our State Space series. Here you will find how we’re thinking about the pathways and scenarios that could take us to critical economic states.
Macro and Markets
135 postsCore-Cast: Year-over-Year PCE Inflation Readings Now Set To Move Higher From December To January
We're doing the dirty work of translating inflation inputs into PCE in real-time for you. There are some dark parts of PCE not related to CPI...
Lessons From Jan Retail Sales - The Implications of Base Effects and Residual Seasonality
Retail sales showed strength in January. As a proxy for gross labor income trends, it confirms both (1) the resilience we're seeing in the labor market...
Introducing The Core-Cast: What We Learned About The Fed's PCE Inflation Gauges From January CPI
We're doing the dirty work of translating CPI to PCE in real-time for you. We'll be back on Thursday to provide an update after...
Bad Evidence From Disinflationistas (Q1 Inflation Risks Are To The Upside)
We'll have our usual monthly inflation preview soon, but for those curious, here's a bit of a preview to the preview... We all should...
