After what appeared to be (on the surface and at first glance) a hot January, the labor market data for February 2024 signaled a return to the narrative we followed throughout last year: the labor market is slowing, but remains strong.
The headline January labor market data was strong, but there are still some signs of weakness under the surface.
In December, the labor market risks shifted further over towards unemployment.
There will be a time and a place for a more thorough retrospective of this still-unfolding (dis)inflationary episode, but it would be premature to make strong declarations...
