Even if Sahm Rules Might not be Right This Time, the Fed Should Still Cut
When it comes to the Fed policy today, the question of whether or not these rules are good at telling us if we’re currently in a recession is almost besides the point.
Labor Markets
112 postsLabor Market Recap July 2024
A 50 basis point cut should be the base case after today and further slowdowns in the remaining jobs and inflation reports between now and the September meeting may bolster the case for more drastic action this year.
Tracking Gross Labor Income In Real-Time Without Revisions
This article is intended to serve as a follow-up to the #FloorGLI proposal in “Floor It! Fixing the Fed’s Framework With Paychecks, Not Prices.” The official national...
Fire Prevention over Fire Fighting: The Case for Preemptive Cutting
Fire prevention—rather than fire fighting—is a better approach to risk management when it comes to the labor market. When it comes to unemployment risk, the Fed should be proactive and preemptive, not reactive.
