While layoffs are painful to workers, more attention needs to be paid to the threat of a rise in unemployment arising from a slowdown in hiring. In this report, we examine the important role that a fall in hiring rates plays during unemployment increases.
The Fed is arguing that inflation is driven by the cost-push impacts of wage growth on service prices. This is a traditional view, but the pandemic recovery has...
In the coming weeks, we hope to discuss in greater detail what kinds of labor market and inflation outcomes the Fed should be aiming for. Here is an...
New data from December shows a labor market that remains strong all-around even as wages have begun to decelerate. The unemployment rate ticked down from 3.6% to...
The Fed says that the labor market needs to cool in order to bring inflation down. A key part of the case for maintaining the current pace of...
