The Fed Embraces Preemptive Action
“The time to support the labor market is when it’s strong, and not when you begin to see layoffs.”
Labor Markets
114 postsSeptember 2024 FOMC Preview
Our new baseline is a 50 bps cut with a total of 75 bps of cuts in the SEP for 2024. It’s a close call but we think a 50 bps cut is more likely than a 25 bps cut. We think a 50 bps point cut is the right move.
Labor Market Recap August 2024: Enough Weakness for 50 bps in September
Even though today’s report gave back some of the weakness in the July household survey, the reversion was slight. The August report meets the conditions we laid out yesterday for a 50 bps cut in September to play catch-up.
What Should Be At Stake On Jobs Day: Sufficient Conditions For Frontloading Interest Rate Cuts
We see two individually sufficient conditions for the Fed to proceed with a frontloaded interest rate cut in September above 25 basis points: either (1) the unemployment rate...
