The data from the February labor market show continued labor market strength. Almost all employment-based indicators show improvement from the previous month, even as the general trend of wage growth is downwards. The headline unemployment number rose from 3.4% to 3....
Welcome to our State Space series. Here you will find how we’re thinking about the pathways and scenarios that could take us to critical economic states.
Just how tight is the labor market? It depends on which measurement you pick! Some economists look to the unemployment rate, or to its difference from some estimated,...
How do we evaluate model choice under uncertainty as data points are still coming in? If one model implies prescriptions with direct, catastrophic welfare costs that are empirically difficult to reverse, should the consequences affect how much weight we give the model?
