What the data tells us to expect for Friday: * Interpreting nonfarm payroll employment numbers will be messy due to the benchmark revision: The BLS folds in more comprehensive data each February on job creation. That can be especially substantial at the sectoral...
Wage growth is slowing. Job openings are increasing, unemployment is holding, and wage growth is slowing. This was supposed to be impossible–so what does it mean that it’s happening?
Wage growth slowed in Q4 faster than consensus forecasts–-at an annualized rate just over 4%. We already noted in our preview that this would be very consistent...
As we await the Q4 Employment Cost Index (ECI) release tomorrow (forecasting consensus: 1.2% QoQ, 4.9% CAGR; Q3: 1.2% QoQ, 4.8% CAGR), two key...
While layoffs are painful to workers, more attention needs to be paid to the threat of a rise in unemployment arising from a slowdown in hiring. In this report, we examine the important role that a fall in hiring rates plays during unemployment increases.
