The State Space: March 2023
Welcome to our State Space series. Here you will find how we’re thinking about the pathways and scenarios that could take us to critical economic states.
Labor Markets
112 postsWas the Labor Market Really that Tight? Evidence from Employer to Employer Transition Rates
Just how tight is the labor market? It depends on which measurement you pick! Some economists look to the unemployment rate, or to its difference from some estimated,...
If A Model Told You To Jump Off A Bridge Would You Do It?
How do we evaluate model choice under uncertainty as data points are still coming in? If one model implies prescriptions with direct, catastrophic welfare costs that are empirically difficult to reverse, should the consequences affect how much weight we give the model?
Labor Market Recap January 2023: Disinflation Amidst Labor Market Strength
Labor Market Recap January 2023: The data from the January labor market show an unequivocally strong labor market. Nearly every indicator from every data source is showing strong...
Not So Scary After All: Disinflation and the Phillips Curve
In our previous piece in our vacancies series, we took a deep dive into Ball, Leigh and Mishra (2022), “Understanding U.S. Inflation During the COVID Era,” a paper presented at the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Conference in September 2022. The paper, which warned that the Fed’s...
