Labor Markets
129 postsMisled by the Phillips Curve: How Inflation Predictions Went Wrong
In a recent Barron’s article, I examined why last year’s predictions that fighting inflation would require an increase in the unemployment rate went so wrong. The flaws in these predictions can be traced back to three ideas: first, that vacancies are a good measure of labor market tightness; second
It's About The Supply-Side: How The Phillips Curve 'Motte-and-Bailey' Misses and Misspecifies Inflation Dynamics
Summary Inflation and interest rates remain high enough that now is not a time for 'soft landing' victory laps, but the growing and broadening evidence of...
Labor Market Recap July 2023: Slowing, but Strong
The July 2023 labor market data continues to confirm the story we’ve been telling for months: while slowing down, the labor market remains strong, with high levels...
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