Labor Markets

June 1, 2023 by Skanda Amarnath — 3 min read

May Jobs Day Preview (Public Version) - Will There Be Reason For The Fed To Deviate From A June "Skip"?

This preview was originally published two days ago. It has been updated to reflect the additional information from JOLTS and the flurry of Fedspeak yesterday. Baseline View Slower job growth, slower wage growth, an unemployment rate that might fall to a new...

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May Jobs Day Preview - There Is A Path To A June Hike

Skanda Amarnath — 3 min read

Jobs Day Preview Employment Labor Markets NFP

Participation and the Post-Pandemic Labor Market: Pre-Pandemic is not the Ceiling

Preston Mui — 6 min read

Contrary to the expectations of Fed officials, labor force participation growth has been strong over the last six months. In this piece, I use Current Population Survey microdata, correct for measurement issues, and show that an increase in labor force entry played a significant role in this recent…

Labor Markets FOMC Fed Expectations Fed Policy Inflation Inflation Expectations Data

Mid-May State Space (& April PCE Preview): Regional Banks & Debt Ceiling Bring End of Hikes Into Clearer View

Skanda Amarnath — 1 min read

Welcome to our State Space series. Here you will find how we’re thinking about the pathways and scenarios that could take us to critical economic states. We...

State Space Macro and Markets Preview Monetary Policy Growth Expectations Inflation Expectations Core-Cast Core Inflation Core PCE Core Services Ex Housing

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Mid-May State Space (& April PCE Preview): Regional Banks & Debt Ceiling Bring End of Hikes Into Clearer View

Skanda Amarnath — 5 min read

State Space Macro and Markets Preview Monetary Policy Growth Expectations Inflation Expectations Core-Cast Core Inflation Core PCE Core Services Ex Housing

May Jobs Day Preview (Public Version) - Will There Be Reason For The Fed To Deviate From A June "Skip"?

May Jobs Day Preview - There Is A Path To A June Hike

Participation and the Post-Pandemic Labor Market: Pre-Pandemic is not the Ceiling

Mid-May State Space (& April PCE Preview): Regional Banks & Debt Ceiling Bring End of Hikes Into Clearer View

Mid-May State Space (& April PCE Preview): Regional Banks & Debt Ceiling Bring End of Hikes Into Clearer View

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