Labor Market Recap September 2024: Good News
Make no mistake: this is good news. The Fed has made a commitment to not allowing the labor market to deteriorate further, and we’d rather not see that commitment tested.
Make no mistake: this is good news. The Fed has made a commitment to not allowing the labor market to deteriorate further, and we’d rather not see that commitment tested.
“The time to support the labor market is when it’s strong, and not when you begin to see layoffs.”
Our new baseline is a 50 bps cut with a total of 75 bps of cuts in the SEP for 2024. It’s a close call but we think a 50 bps cut is more likely than a 25 bps cut. We think a 50 bps point cut is the right move.
Even though today’s report gave back some of the weakness in the July household survey, the reversion was slight. The August report meets the conditions we laid out yesterday for a 50 bps cut in September to play catch-up.