Jobs Day

The August 2023 labor market data points to a labor market that, while strong and not recessionary, is certainly slowing down more starkly than earlier this year. The headline unemployment rate increased to 3.8% from 3.5%, and the establishment survey showed 187,000 jobs added in August (albeit

The July 2023 labor market data continues to confirm the story we’ve been telling for months: while slowing down, the labor market remains strong, with high levels of employment amidst a disinflationary environment. The headline unemployment number fell to 3.5% from 3.6%, consistent with our preview, and

The data from the June labor market shows continued strength in the labor market, with strong employment and wage growth. The headline unemployment number fell to 3.6% from 3.7% and the establishment survey showed a solid 209,000 jobs added in June, consistent with our preview. While below

The data from the May labor market shows continued renormalization of the labor market, with strong employment, continued slowing of wage growth, and reduced churn.

This preview was originally published two days ago. It has been updated to reflect the additional information from JOLTS and the flurry of Fedspeak yesterday. Baseline View Slower job growth, slower wage growth, an unemployment rate that might fall to a new record low. In light of mixed JOLTS report