Jobs Day

After a somewhat worrying October report, November’s labor market data shows lower recession risk.

The labor market is really softening now.

The September 2023 labor market data continued to show a strong labor market. The headline unemployment rate remained steady at 3.8%, and the establishment survey showed an eye-popping 336,000 jobs added in September—alongside an upwards revision of 79,000 and 40,000 jobs in July and August.

The August 2023 labor market data points to a labor market that, while strong and not recessionary, is certainly slowing down more starkly than earlier this year. The headline unemployment rate increased to 3.8% from 3.5%, and the establishment survey showed 187,000 jobs added in August (albeit

The July 2023 labor market data continues to confirm the story we’ve been telling for months: while slowing down, the labor market remains strong, with high levels of employment amidst a disinflationary environment. The headline unemployment number fell to 3.5% from 3.6%, consistent with our preview, and