Labor Market Recap January 2025: A Solid Report, but Risks Ahead
The labor market might be solid right now, but the composition of job growth in the future looks increasingly worrying.
The labor market might be solid right now, but the composition of job growth in the future looks increasingly worrying.
The further slowing we were worried about last month, particularly in the prime-age employment rate, did not materialize. This sets back expectations for earlier and more rate cuts this year, but it’s certainly a good report for anyone concerned about the left tail of labor market risk.
The labor market is treading water at this point. It’s not drowning, but it’s unclear how long it can remain in this state.