For those who have followed my Twitter feed, you will know that I have long pointed out that "narrow vs broad-based," "transitory vs persistent," and "supply vs demand" are not three ways of saying the same thing.
In the coming weeks, we hope to discuss in greater detail what kinds of labor market and inflation outcomes the Fed should be aiming for. Here is an...
A soft landing consensus for CPI? The forecasting consensus is sticking close to its November predictions, with a 0.3% increase expected for core CPI (falling from 6%...
Though they may proclaim otherwise, the Fed is aiming for a recessionary labor market. They might not succeed, they might change their minds, but buried in the Fed’s latest projections is a definite–albeit obscured–statement of intent.
Market rents are decelerating, which means CPI-measured rents – and with them, core and headline CPI – should ultimately decelerate as well, with a lag. But is this deceleration due...
