September headline CPI inflation will likely come in near the consensus forecast of 0.2% as gyrations in commodity markets slow. In our view, upside risks weigh more heavily to the non-core components of inflation relative to consensus because of how the...
August headline CPI inflation will likely come in close to the consensus forecast at -0.1% – which would be the lowest single-month reading since the onset of the pandemic.
When we disaggregate the aggregate inflation statistics, we find that the sources of high inflation in the US and Europe are different.
July headline inflation is likely to come in roughly in line with the consensus forecast at 0.2% with the possibility of a mild downside surprise. Core inflation will likely be in line with forecasts as well at 0.5%, and is poised to cool further in coming months.
Two things are all but guaranteed for the rest of the week: 1. The Fed is going to hike 75 basis points (2.25%-2.50%) and signal...
