Inflation

April 25, 2023 by Skanda Amarnath — 6 min read

March PCE / Q1 ECI Preview: Downside Risks To Inflationary Consensus Likely To Succeed Upside Risks To GDP

Mid-April State Space: All Still To Play For

Skanda Amarnath — 1 min read

Welcome to our State Space series. Here you will find how we’re thinking about the pathways and scenarios that could take us to critical economic states. We...

State Space Macro and Markets Monetary Policy Labor Markets Growth Expectations Inflation Expectations Core Inflation Inflation Wages Fed Policy

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Mid-April State Space: All Still To Play For

Skanda Amarnath — 4 min read

State Space Macro and Markets Monetary Policy Labor Markets Growth Expectations Inflation Expectations Core Inflation Inflation Wages Fed Policy

Signs of Slowing: Measuring Wages in Core Non-Housing Services

Preston Mui — 5 min read

We reconstruct the White House’s core non-housing services wage index. We walk through the construction of this series, which is available for premium donors.

Core Services Ex Housing Wages PCE Inflation Fed Policy Data

Causal Theme: By the Fed's "Core Services Ex Housing" Logic, The Fed's Inflation Narrative Is Due For Revision

Skanda Amarnath — 2 min read

Summary: If we focus on the domestic labor that contributes to "Core Services Ex Housing PCE" output, we see that wage growth is no longer looking...

Core Inflation Core Services Ex Housing Inflation Wages Monetary Policy Fed Policy Federal Reserve Labor Markets

March PCE / Q1 ECI Preview: Downside Risks To Inflationary Consensus Likely To Succeed Upside Risks To GDP

Mid-April State Space: All Still To Play For

Mid-April State Space: All Still To Play For

Signs of Slowing: Measuring Wages in Core Non-Housing Services

Causal Theme: By the Fed's "Core Services Ex Housing" Logic, The Fed's Inflation Narrative Is Due For Revision

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