We'll have our usual monthly inflation preview soon, but for those curious, here's a bit of a preview to the preview... We all should take heart in how 2022H2 highlighted the possibility and plausibility of a 'soft...
In our previous piece in our vacancies series, we took a deep dive into Ball, Leigh and Mishra (2022), “Understanding U.S. Inflation During the COVID Era,” a paper presented at the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Conference in September 2022. The paper, which warned that the Fed’s...
Wage growth is slowing. Job openings are increasing, unemployment is holding, and wage growth is slowing. This was supposed to be impossible–so what does it mean that it’s happening?
As we await the Q4 Employment Cost Index (ECI) release tomorrow (forecasting consensus: 1.2% QoQ, 4.9% CAGR; Q3: 1.2% QoQ, 4.8% CAGR), two key...
The Fed is arguing that inflation is driven by the cost-push impacts of wage growth on service prices. This is a traditional view, but the pandemic recovery has...
