Inflation
261 postsJuly Core-Cast Post-PCE: Core PCE Should Encourage The Fed, But "Watch Out For The Wedge" Between CPI Noise & PCE Signal
Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of...
Misled by the Phillips Curve: How Inflation Predictions Went Wrong
In a recent Barron’s article, I examined why last year’s predictions that fighting inflation would require an increase in the unemployment rate went so wrong. The flaws in these predictions can be traced back to three ideas: first, that vacancies are a good measure of labor market tightness; second
It's About The Supply-Side: How The Phillips Curve 'Motte-and-Bailey' Misses and Misspecifies Inflation Dynamics
Summary Inflation and interest rates remain high enough that now is not a time for 'soft landing' victory laps, but the growing and broadening evidence of...
