Inflation

June 27, 2023 by Skanda Amarnath — 1 min read

State Space - How Core PCE Outcomes Are Likely To Map To The Fed's Interest Rate Decisions Through 2023

Welcome to our State Space series. Here you will find how we’re thinking about the pathways and scenarios that could take us to critical economic states. We will never settle for "it's too unlikely." We try to...

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State Space - How Core PCE Outcomes Are Likely To Map To The Fed's Interest Rate Decisions Through 2023

Skanda Amarnath — 6 min read

State Space Core PCE Core Inflation Core-Cast Fed Expectations Fed Policy Inflation Macro and Markets FOMC

Wage Passthrough to Prices is Minimal and Abating

Preston Mui — 7 min read

Throughout the pandemic recovery, high inflation has been attributed to tight labor markets and high wage growth. Fed officials have, for months, maintained that the labor market needs...

Core Services Ex Housing Fed Expectations Fed Policy Inflation Inflation Expectations Monetary Policy Wages

May Core-Cast Post-PPI: Confirming The Inflection Point - Monthly "Core Services Ex Housing" Inflation Should Align With Fed's 2% Goals in May

Skanda Amarnath — 5 min read

Core-Cast Core Inflation Core PCE Core Services Ex Housing Inflation PPI Systematic Monitors Data

May Core-Cast Post-PPI: Confirming The Inflection Point - Monthly "Core Services Ex Housing" Inflation Should Align With Fed's 2% Goals in May

Skanda Amarnath — 2 min read

Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of...

Core-Cast Core Inflation Core PCE Core Services Ex Housing Inflation PPI Systematic Monitors Recap Data

State Space - How Core PCE Outcomes Are Likely To Map To The Fed's Interest Rate Decisions Through 2023

State Space - How Core PCE Outcomes Are Likely To Map To The Fed's Interest Rate Decisions Through 2023

Wage Passthrough to Prices is Minimal and Abating

May Core-Cast Post-PPI: Confirming The Inflection Point - Monthly "Core Services Ex Housing" Inflation Should Align With Fed's 2% Goals in May

May Core-Cast Post-PPI: Confirming The Inflection Point - Monthly "Core Services Ex Housing" Inflation Should Align With Fed's 2% Goals in May

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