Inflation

August 31, 2023 by Skanda Amarnath — 7 min read

July Core-Cast Post-PCE: Core PCE Should Encourage The Fed, But "Watch Out For The Wedge" Between CPI Noise & PCE Signal

Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of how inflation components and themes are performing relative to what transpires when inflation is...

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July Core-Cast Post-GDP Revisions: Q2 Revisions Bode Well For Year-over-Year Readings (But Push Up Monthly Nowcast)

Skanda Amarnath — 5 min read

Core-Cast Core Inflation Core PCE Core Services Ex Housing Inflation Nowcast GDP Data Systematic Monitors

Misled by the Phillips Curve: How Inflation Predictions Went Wrong

Preston Mui — 15 min read

In a recent Barron’s article, I examined why last year’s predictions that fighting inflation would require an increase in the unemployment rate went so wrong. The flaws in these predictions can be traced back to three ideas: first, that vacancies are a good measure of labor market tightness; second

CPI Data Inflation Inflation Expectations Labor Markets Federal Reserve

It's About The Supply-Side: How The Phillips Curve 'Motte-and-Bailey' Misses and Misspecifies Inflation Dynamics

Skanda Amarnath — 11 min read

Summary Inflation and interest rates remain high enough that now is not a time for 'soft landing' victory laps, but the growing and broadening evidence of...

Labor Markets Inflation Wages Causal Theme Supply Chains

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July Core-Cast Post-PPI: Soft CPI Blunted By...Spiking Prices For Portfolio Management & Investment Advice?

Skanda Amarnath — 6 min read

PPI Core-Cast Core PCE Core Inflation Core Services Ex Housing Inflation Data Nowcast Recap

July Core-Cast Post-PCE: Core PCE Should Encourage The Fed, But "Watch Out For The Wedge" Between CPI Noise & PCE Signal

July Core-Cast Post-GDP Revisions: Q2 Revisions Bode Well For Year-over-Year Readings (But Push Up Monthly Nowcast)

Misled by the Phillips Curve: How Inflation Predictions Went Wrong

It's About The Supply-Side: How The Phillips Curve 'Motte-and-Bailey' Misses and Misspecifies Inflation Dynamics

July Core-Cast Post-PPI: Soft CPI Blunted By...Spiking Prices For Portfolio Management & Investment Advice?

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