Inflation
229 postsMisled by the Phillips Curve: How Inflation Predictions Went Wrong
In a recent Barron’s article, I examined why last year’s predictions that fighting inflation would require an increase in the unemployment rate went so wrong. The flaws in these predictions can be traced back to three ideas: first, that vacancies are a good measure of labor market tightness; second
It's About The Supply-Side: How The Phillips Curve 'Motte-and-Bailey' Misses and Misspecifies Inflation Dynamics
Summary Inflation and interest rates remain high enough that now is not a time for 'soft landing' victory laps, but the growing and broadening evidence of...
July Core-Cast Post-CPI: More Good News Ahead Of Schedule - Yes, It's Not Far-Fetched For Core PCE To Be Near 2% Next Summer
Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of...
