Inflation Expectations
164 postsMisled by the Phillips Curve: How Inflation Predictions Went Wrong
In a recent Barron’s article, I examined why last year’s predictions that fighting inflation would require an increase in the unemployment rate went so wrong. The flaws in these predictions can be traced back to three ideas: first, that vacancies are a good measure of labor market tightness; second
Financial Conditions Monitor: R-Star Questions and A Fading Growth Impulse - August 20, 2023
We systematically track the evolution of financial conditions and their underlying drivers. We intend to share regular updates of these systematic monitors with our donors on a more...
Financial Conditions Monitor: The "R-Star Brigade" Remains Unfazed - August 13, 2023
We systematically track the evolution of financial conditions and their underlying drivers. We intend to share regular updates of these systematic monitors with our donors on a more...
