Lately, everyone has been looking closely for reliable recession indicators. We have been as well, but when we look at the overall labor market and investment picture, more and more things seem to be saying “No Recession.”
In a usual business cycle, investment in industrial equipment leads investment in manufacturing structures as businesses scale capacity up to meet demand. Today we’re seeing manufacturing investment explode upwards even as investment in equipment slows. This may be an early indication that CHIPS...
Investments in improving and expanding the grid are potentially a strong tailwind to the macroeconomic investment picture. Just electrical transmission, distribution and industrial apparatus represents around 5% of business equipment, around 2% fixed investment and around 0.3% of GDP...
Some are already beginning to worry about the Inflation Reduction Act “crowding out” investment by the private sector. Yet the private sector is seeing things differently. In the...
The following was originally presented as “Towards Macroprudential Fiscal Policy” at the Coordinating the Supply Side: Creating a Systemic Industrial Policy for the 21st Century conference put on...
