The Fed Should Keep Unemployment Expectations Anchored
We will be hoping for two things at the September meeting this week: a 50 bps cut and minimal upwards revisions to the unemployment rate projections in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).
Full Employment
12 postsEven if Sahm Rules Might not be Right This Time, the Fed Should Still Cut
When it comes to the Fed policy today, the question of whether or not these rules are good at telling us if we’re currently in a recession is almost besides the point.
Fire Prevention over Fire Fighting: The Case for Preemptive Cutting
Fire prevention—rather than fire fighting—is a better approach to risk management when it comes to the labor market. When it comes to unemployment risk, the Fed should be proactive and preemptive, not reactive.
Labor Market Recap June 2024: Fed, Start Thinking About Cuts
With all of the softening in the labor market, it’s time for the Fed to actively discuss starting the process of rate normalization.
The Dream of the 90's, Part II: Clear Eyes, Full Employment, Can't Lose
For decades, “jobless recovery” has been a watchword in the aftermath of each recession. But in the 1990s—and today—we saw a fully recovered labor market.
