Summary: Today's FOMC Statement and press conference shows high continuity with the thinking reflected in the December FOMC meeting. The Fed does not appear to be impressed by the deceleration in wage growth in 2022H2 enough to explicitly rethink the...
What to Expect: 1. The Fed will continue moderating its pace of rate hikes, stepping down to 25 basis point hikes. 2. With favorable disinflationary data coming in...
While layoffs are painful to workers, more attention needs to be paid to the threat of a rise in unemployment arising from a slowdown in hiring. In this report, we examine the important role that a fall in hiring rates plays during unemployment increases.
What to Expect: 1. The Fed will step down from their breakneck pace of 75 basis point hikes to a still very brisk 50 basis point pace of...
Summary 1. Friday's Q3 ECI release showed a modest slowdown in the pace of wage growth. Coupled with what we already knew about Q3 employment growth,...
