FloorGLI

January 25, 2023 by Skanda Amarnath — 5 min read

Too Many Eggs In One Basket: The Fragility of The Fed's Wage-Oriented 'Cost-Push' View of Inflation

The Fed is arguing that inflation is driven by the cost-push impacts of wage growth on service prices. This is a traditional view, but the pandemic recovery has been anything but textbook. In our view, the primary nexus is a demand-pull relationship....

December FOMC: How Much More Tightening Is Needed? The Fed's Projections Play With Fire

Skanda Amarnath — 4 min read

What to Expect: 1. The Fed will step down from their breakneck pace of 75 basis point hikes to a still very brisk 50 basis point pace of...

Federal Reserve Fed Policy FloorGLI Monetary Policy Macro and Markets Labor Markets FOMC

Framework Update: Strong Enough Income Growth To Justify Hikes, But Slowing Enough For The Fed To Plan Off-Ramps

Skanda Amarnath — 10 min read

Summary 1. Friday's Q3 ECI release showed a modest slowdown in the pace of wage growth. Coupled with what we already knew about Q3 employment growth,...

FloorGLI Federal Reserve Fed Policy FOMC Monetary Policy Macro and Markets Labor Markets

The Next Phase of the Labor Market Expansion

Skanda Amarnath — 3 min read

As of the first quarter of 2022, we have effectively recovered the jobs and wages lost to the pandemic-induced recession.

Labor Markets Macro and Markets FloorGLI

Too Many Eggs In One Basket: The Fragility of The Fed's Wage-Oriented 'Cost-Push' View of Inflation

December FOMC: How Much More Tightening Is Needed? The Fed's Projections Play With Fire

Framework Update: Strong Enough Income Growth To Justify Hikes, But Slowing Enough For The Fed To Plan Off-Ramps

The Next Phase of the Labor Market Expansion

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