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Fedspeak Monitor 6/29/24: The Doves are Getting Bolder
Since the June FOMC meeting and the May CPI release, there's been a noticeable shift in tone amongst the doves in the Committee.
Since the June FOMC meeting and the May CPI release, there's been a noticeable shift in tone amongst the doves in the Committee.
Inflation optimism among the doves is back, but the hawks will want to see many months of good inflation before they're sure.
Our view of where the new dots are.
With the labor market still strong and April inflation representing an improvement over Q1 but still not good enough, the committee is in “looking for confidence” mode.
Our baseline projection has the median June dot at two cuts, but it's on a knife-edge with one cut now.