Fedspeak Monitor 10/6/24
We had some Fedspeak this week but mostly people stuck to their previous views.
We had some Fedspeak this week but mostly people stuck to their previous views.
With labor market risk rearing its head, Kashkari and Bostic sound dovish again.
A little bit of post-game analysis from Bowman and Waller. Waller defends 50 by pointing to the implications of the CPI and PPI data received during blackout period for core PCE.
Our new baseline is a 50 bps cut with a total of 75 bps of cuts in the SEP for 2024. It’s a close call but we think a 50 bps cut is more likely than a 25 bps cut. We think a 50 bps point cut is the right move.
It's the last week of Fedspeak before the blackout period for the September meeting. Everyone speaking this week is on board with Powell's assessment that the labor market is at least balanced.