Paid-members
Fedspeak Monitor: 9/8/24
It's the last week of Fedspeak before the blackout period for the September meeting. Everyone speaking this week is on board with Powell's assessment that the labor market is at least balanced.
Federal Reserve
187 postsLabor Market Recap August 2024: Enough Weakness for 50 bps in September
Even though today’s report gave back some of the weakness in the July household survey, the reversion was slight. The August report meets the conditions we laid out yesterday for a 50 bps cut in September to play catch-up.
What Should Be At Stake On Jobs Day: Sufficient Conditions For Frontloading Interest Rate Cuts
We see two individually sufficient conditions for the Fed to proceed with a frontloaded interest rate cut in September above 25 basis points: either (1) the unemployment rate...
Paid-members
Fedspeak Monitor 9/2/24
A quiet week after Jackson Hole. What we did hear this past week showed that Powell has some convincing to do on the Committee.
Powell is Right: the FOMC Shouldn't Prematurely Endorse Gradualism
Almost as notable as the things Powell said were the things he did not. Between now and September, Fedspeak should focus on keeping the Committee’s options open to a 50 bps cut in September.
