Fedspeak Monitor: April 8th
Still too early to say about June dots, but this week’s Fedspeak suggests the Fed sees the turmoil in the wake of SVB as unlikely to widen, but of possible sectoral relevance as a shock to small businesses, as we noted...
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Fedspeak Monitor: April 1
We think it’s too early to make any judgments about June dots but it seems clearer that Susan Collins’ priors remain geared towards further tightening, while Neel Kashkari consistently sounded more cautious about macroeconomic implications from banking turmoil.
Where Could We See SVB Fallout in the Labor Market?
There's a great deal of literature on the connection between tighter credit conditions, economic activity, hiring, and inflation. Very large body of literature. The question is,...
The State Space: Mid-March Update
Welcome to our State Space series. Here you will find how we’re thinking about the pathways and scenarios that could take us to critical economic states. We...
