The Fed in 2023: Buying into Deceleration
In this piece, we’ll take a look at how the Fed’s thinking on the labor market has changed as the data validated or disproved various hypotheses in 2023.
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Fedspeak Monitor 11/4/23 - 11/10/23: Growth Views Diverge
An extremely busy week of Fedspeak, with nearly every Fed official speaking.
November 2023 FOMC Preview: Long Yields Encourage Restraint
The Fed will leave its target range for the Federal Funds Rate at 5.25%-5.50%. The big news between the last meeting and this is the large raise in long yields, which has several committee members thinking that there will be less need to hike.
September Core-Cast Post-PCE: Soft ECI Tea Leaves, Core PCE Still Poised To Underperform Fed Projections
Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of...
