Federal Reserve

Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of...

Core-Cast Core Inflation Core PCE Core Services Ex Housing Inflation Systematic Monitors CPI Preview Federal Reserve Fed Policy

Three Motivations for Interest Rate Normalization: A Playbook for Fed Policy in 2024

Preston Mui & Skanda Amarnath — 20 min read

What steps should the Fed take to preserve the hard-earned recovery in the labor market? We present a path for the Fed in 2024.

Federal Reserve Fed Policy Inflation Labor Markets Financial Stability Supply Side

November Core-Cast Post-IPI + Post-FOMC Thoughts: Nowcasts Still Look Soft But Not As Soft As What Powell Cited.

November Core-Cast Post-PPI: The "Wedge" Breaks Perfectly For A Stunningly Soft Nowcast. The Path To A March "Normalization Cut" Is Emerging

December 2023 FOMC Preview

November Inflation Preview: Headline Downside But Can Core PCE Keep A March "Normalization Cut" In Play?

Three Motivations for Interest Rate Normalization: A Playbook for Fed Policy in 2024

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