Federal Reserve
197 postsIt Wasn't AI: How Fiscal Supports, Supply Chain Healing, & Full Employment Explain Exceptional Productivity In 2023
The productivity data is messy and often should not be taken at face value. Our "Cautious Case For Productivity Optimism" in the summer of last year...
January 2024 FOMC Preview
With lots of new data around the corner, the Fed will want to keep its options open.
December Core-Cast Post-PCE: Nowcasted Progress Confirmed. The Path To A March Cut Becomes Clearer To The Public And Hinges On Data In February
Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of...
Paid-members
Fedspeak Monitor (1/7/24 - 1/13/24)
Members are mostly loathe to talk about rate cut timing, but reveal some thoughts about the trajectory of the economy.
