Fed Policy

The second leg of the productivity growth stool is a boom in fixed investment. This is the heart of productivity growth in many ways, and is critical to achieving disinflationary dynamics over the medium term.

For decades, “jobless recovery” has been a watchword in the aftermath of each recession. But in the 1990s—and today—we saw a fully recovered labor market.

"The Dream of the 90's" examines the macroeconomic conditions that led to strong growth in the late-1990s and what policies can revive that productivity growth today.

Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of how inflation components and themes are performing relative to what transpires when inflation is running at 2%. Most of the Personal Consumption

There will be a time and a place for a more thorough retrospective of this still-unfolding (dis)inflationary episode, but it would be premature to make strong declarations at this juncture. We should all be thrilled by the past 6-7 months of inflation data, but it is ultimately only 6-7

Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of how inflation components and themes are performing relative to what transpires when inflation is running at 2%. Most of the Personal Consumption