Summary 1. Friday's Q3 ECI release showed a modest slowdown in the pace of wage growth. Coupled with what we already knew about Q3 employment growth, we are continuing to see a slower—though still highly respectable and resilient—pace...
Two things are all but guaranteed for the rest of the week: 1. The Fed is going to hike 75 basis points (2.25%-2.50%) and signal...
Summary Although neither the magnitude nor composition of last week's inflation print surprised us [https://www.employamerica.org/blog/peak-inflation-not-so-fast-my-friend/], especially given the knock-on effects from...
Tightening global financial conditions may serve to reinforce policy tightening, and the Fed should be cognizant of the risk that hikes may have a stronger-than-expected impact in this period of elevated uncertainty.
A CPI pre-read, wherein we argue the Fed should be calibrating its tightening efforts to what current conditions are indicating.
