Is productivity worryingly low right now? Some commentators have argued it is, going on to argue that the "disappointing" productivity data should be a primary factor in the Fed's upcoming policy decisions. By their logic, disappointing realized productivity...
Though they may proclaim otherwise, the Fed is aiming for a recessionary labor market. They might not succeed, they might change their minds, but buried in the Fed’s latest projections is a definite–albeit obscured–statement of intent.
The Fed says that the labor market needs to cool in order to bring inflation down. A key part of the case for maintaining the current pace of...
What to Expect: 1. The Fed will step down from their breakneck pace of 75 basis point hikes to a still very brisk 50 basis point pace of...
Market rents are decelerating, which means CPI-measured rents – and with them, core and headline CPI – should ultimately decelerate as well, with a lag. But is this deceleration due...
