Even if Sahm Rules Might not be Right This Time, the Fed Should Still Cut
When it comes to the Fed policy today, the question of whether or not these rules are good at telling us if we’re currently in a recession is almost besides the point.
Fed Policy
177 postsLabor Market Recap July 2024
A 50 basis point cut should be the base case after today and further slowdowns in the remaining jobs and inflation reports between now and the September meeting may bolster the case for more drastic action this year.
In Order to Avoid Falling Behind, 50bps in September Should be on the Table
By delaying rate cuts in search of certainty, the Fed risks being behind the ball. The FOMC should actively keep the option of a 50 basis point cut on the table between now and the September meeting.
July 2024 FOMC Preview
While Fedspeak has certainly shifted during the past few weeks, few members are itching to cut rates at the July meeting.
