Fed Policy

February 17, 2023 by Skanda Amarnath — 2 min read

Core-Cast: Import Price Data Tempers Upside PCE Nowcast For January. Year-over-Year Readings May Not Rise

Core-Cast is our real-time nowcasting model that tracks the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. Most of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation gauges are sourced from Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, but translation from CPI...

Core-Cast: Import Price Data Tempers Upside PCE Nowcast For January. Year-over-Year Readings May Not Rise

Skanda Amarnath — 2 min read

Nowcast Core-Cast Core Inflation Core PCE Core Services Ex Housing PCE Inflation Fed Policy

Core-Cast: Year-over-Year PCE Inflation Readings Now Set To Move Higher From December To January

Skanda Amarnath — 3 min read

We're doing the dirty work of translating inflation inputs into PCE in real-time for you. There are some dark parts of PCE not related to CPI...

CPI Core PCE PCE Core Inflation Inflation Core-Cast Federal Reserve Nowcast Macro and Markets Monetary Policy

Introducing The Core-Cast: What We Learned About The Fed's PCE Inflation Gauges From January CPI

Skanda Amarnath — 2 min read

We're doing the dirty work of translating CPI to PCE in real-time for you. We'll be back on Thursday to provide an update after...

CPI PCE Core PCE Inflation Core Inflation Core Services Ex Housing Core-Cast Nowcast Data Monetary Policy

January Inflation Preview - Residual Seasonality & Stickier Services Pose Upside Risks

Skanda Amarnath — 6 min read

Summary: Relative to consensus forecasts, the risks for January & Q1 core inflation are now asymmetrically tilted to the upside (Jan core CPI ~ 0.4%). While we don&...

CPI Inflation Fed Policy

Core-Cast: Import Price Data Tempers Upside PCE Nowcast For January. Year-over-Year Readings May Not Rise

Core-Cast: Import Price Data Tempers Upside PCE Nowcast For January. Year-over-Year Readings May Not Rise

Core-Cast: Year-over-Year PCE Inflation Readings Now Set To Move Higher From December To January

Introducing The Core-Cast: What We Learned About The Fed's PCE Inflation Gauges From January CPI

January Inflation Preview - Residual Seasonality & Stickier Services Pose Upside Risks

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