September 2024 FOMC Preview
Our new baseline is a 50 bps cut with a total of 75 bps of cuts in the SEP for 2024. It’s a close call but we think a 50 bps cut is more likely than a 25 bps cut. We think a 50 bps point cut is the right move.
Fed Policy
177 postsLabor Market Recap August 2024: Enough Weakness for 50 bps in September
Even though today’s report gave back some of the weakness in the July household survey, the reversion was slight. The August report meets the conditions we laid out yesterday for a 50 bps cut in September to play catch-up.
What Should Be At Stake On Jobs Day: Sufficient Conditions For Frontloading Interest Rate Cuts
We see two individually sufficient conditions for the Fed to proceed with a frontloaded interest rate cut in September above 25 basis points: either (1) the unemployment rate...
Booming Productivity & Participation Alongside Slowing Income Growth: How The Labor Market Has More Than Rebalanced
Thanks to outperforming supply-side dynamics, the labor market has already rebalanced. At the same time, income growth is still decelerating and the lagging bits of the inflation overshoot...
