Labor Market Recap May 2023: Renormalization
The data from the May labor market shows continued renormalization of the labor market, with strong employment, continued slowing of wage growth, and reduced churn.
Fed Policy
176 postsFedspeak Monitor: May 27th
Today’s hot PCE print keeps a June hike plausibly in play though it still seems like a hold is the better baseline view. This week saw another big round of Fedspeak — though we are still notably waiting on updates from Esther George.
Paid-members
Fedspeak Monitor: May 27th
Today’s hot PCE print keeps a June hike plausibly in play though it still seems like a hold is the better baseline view. This week saw another big round of Fedspeak — though we are still notably waiting on updates from Esther George.
Participation and the Post-Pandemic Labor Market: Pre-Pandemic is not the Ceiling
Contrary to the expectations of Fed officials, labor force participation growth has been strong over the last six months. In this piece, I use Current Population Survey microdata, correct for measurement issues, and show that an increase in labor force entry played a significant role in this recent…
Mid-May State Space (& April PCE Preview): Regional Banks & Debt Ceiling Bring End of Hikes Into Clearer View
Welcome to our State Space series. Here you will find how we’re thinking about the pathways and scenarios that could take us to critical economic states. We...
