Fed Policy

December 6, 2023 by Skanda Amarnath — 4 min read

Four Notes Ahead of the November Employment Report - We Are All On Sahm Rule Watch

Fedspeak Monitor (11/27/23 - 12/1/23)

Preston Mui — 1 min read

Waller effectively put the nail in the coffin of further rate hikes with his comments this week.

Fedspeak Federal Reserve Fed Policy

October Core-Cast Post-PCE: The Good News Keeps Coming In And Accelerates The Potential Timeline For Cuts

Skanda Amarnath — 4 min read

Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of...

Core-Cast Core Inflation Core PCE Core Services Ex Housing PCE Data Recap Systematic Monitors Inflation Federal Reserve

October Core-Cast Post-CPI: This Should Be The Killshot To Hiking Ambitions (Await Confirmation From PPI)

Skanda Amarnath — 5 min read

Core-Cast Core Inflation Core PCE Core Services Ex Housing Inflation CPI Recap Data Systematic Monitors Fed Policy

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A Rising Unemployment Rate Always Warrants Caution, But There Are Good Reasons To Hold Off On The Panicked Interpretation For Now

Skanda Amarnath — 6 min read

Causal Theme Labor Markets Jobs Day Employment Macro and Markets Fed Policy Data Economic Activity

Four Notes Ahead of the November Employment Report - We Are All On Sahm Rule Watch

Fedspeak Monitor (11/27/23 - 12/1/23)

October Core-Cast Post-PCE: The Good News Keeps Coming In And Accelerates The Potential Timeline For Cuts

October Core-Cast Post-CPI: This Should Be The Killshot To Hiking Ambitions (Await Confirmation From PPI)

A Rising Unemployment Rate Always Warrants Caution, But There Are Good Reasons To Hold Off On The Panicked Interpretation For Now

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