Fed Policy

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December 13, 2023 by Skanda Amarnath — 5 min read

November Core-Cast Post-PPI: The "Wedge" Breaks Perfectly For A Stunningly Soft Nowcast. The Path To A March "Normalization Cut" Is Emerging

November Inflation Preview: Headline Downside But Can Core PCE Keep A March "Normalization Cut" In Play?

Skanda Amarnath — 8 min read

Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of...

Core-Cast Core Inflation Core PCE Core Services Ex Housing Inflation Systematic Monitors CPI Preview Federal Reserve Fed Policy

Three Motivations for Interest Rate Normalization: A Playbook for Fed Policy in 2024

Preston Mui & Skanda Amarnath — 20 min read

What steps should the Fed take to preserve the hard-earned recovery in the labor market? We present a path for the Fed in 2024.

Federal Reserve Fed Policy Inflation Labor Markets Financial Stability Supply Side

November Inflation Preview: Headline Downside But Can Core PCE Keep A March "Normalization Cut" In Play?

Skanda Amarnath — 8 min read

Core-Cast Core Inflation Core PCE Core Services Ex Housing Inflation CPI Preview Systematic Monitors Fed Policy Federal Reserve

Four Notes Ahead of the November Employment Report - We Are All On Sahm Rule Watch

Skanda Amarnath — 4 min read

Labor Markets Employment Jobs Day Preview Data Wages Macro and Markets Monetary Policy Federal Reserve Fed Policy

November Core-Cast Post-PPI: The "Wedge" Breaks Perfectly For A Stunningly Soft Nowcast. The Path To A March "Normalization Cut" Is Emerging

November Inflation Preview: Headline Downside But Can Core PCE Keep A March "Normalization Cut" In Play?

Three Motivations for Interest Rate Normalization: A Playbook for Fed Policy in 2024

November Inflation Preview: Headline Downside But Can Core PCE Keep A March "Normalization Cut" In Play?

Four Notes Ahead of the November Employment Report - We Are All On Sahm Rule Watch

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