The Federal Reserve began the process of normalizing interest rates at the September 18th, 2024 FOMC meeting. While the timing of the first rate cut was telegraphed well in advance, the magnitude—25 or 50 basis points—was not. A week prior...
Most of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation gauges are sourced from Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, but Producer Price Index (PPI) input data is of increasing relevance,...
“The time to support the labor market is when it’s strong, and not when you begin to see layoffs.”
We will be hoping for two things at the September meeting this week: a 50 bps cut and minimal upwards revisions to the unemployment rate projections in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).
Our new baseline is a 50 bps cut with a total of 75 bps of cuts in the SEP for 2024. It’s a close call but we think a 50 bps cut is more likely than a 25 bps cut. We think a 50 bps point cut is the right move.
