Members
December 2024 SEP Dot Projections
Our baseline projection is for the median rate dot at three 25 bp cuts in 2025. Our hawkish scenario puts the median member at two cuts for 2025.
Fed Policy
177 postsA 50 Basis Point Cut In September: Why We Called It And Why We Called For It
The Federal Reserve began the process of normalizing interest rates at the September 18th, 2024 FOMC meeting. While the timing of the first rate cut was telegraphed well...
August 2024 Core-Cast Post-PCE: Confirmation of What The Fed Already Saw At The September FOMC Meeting
Most of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation gauges are sourced from Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, but Producer Price Index (PPI) input data is of increasing relevance,...
The Fed Embraces Preemptive Action
“The time to support the labor market is when it’s strong, and not when you begin to see layoffs.”
The Fed Should Keep Unemployment Expectations Anchored
We will be hoping for two things at the September meeting this week: a 50 bps cut and minimal upwards revisions to the unemployment rate projections in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).
